Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Inflation's here

Well, I was kind of hoping for something more... momentous... for my 100th post, but there you go. Now, I know that, as a rule, economists don't consider food and fuel prices when they calculate inflation, because they vary so widely that they add too much "noise" to the "signal" that they try to figure out on a monthly basis. As a rule, I tend to agree... but there's one subsection that I do pay closer attention to, that being the Wal-Mart of fast food, Taco Bell.

Mind you, I don't eat there often... but some nights, while I'm not particularly hungry, I know I should eat something on the way home, and Taco Bell barely qualifies as something. Anyways, what makes Taco Bell worthy of exceptional note is that they compete almost entirely on price... they use some of the least expensive ingredients they can find, and rely on their sauces to make their food "work". In order for them to raise their prices, they have to determine that they can't maintain their profit margin over "reasonable" swings in the price of ingredients and transport, lest they stray into the realm of "higher-end" fast food, like, say, McDonalds.

Last time I hit Taco Bell, my meal of choice came out slightly over $5... this time, it was closer to $6. Allowing for the fuzziness of my numbers, that's about a 10% jump. Whether that increase is due to food, fuel, some combination of the two, or some additional factor, I can't say... what I can say is that, if they're raising prices, others will be in short order, if they haven't already.

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